The 5G era is close at hand, and China may dominate. At present, China's three major operators have finalized the 5G roadmap, and 2020 is the year of the major exam; ZTE Europe has built the first 5G pre-commercial network and has initiated 5G strategic cooperation with multiple operators; several key technologies of Huawei have been Adopted as a 5G international core standard, and has already started relevant 5G testing in India... 5G gives a new opportunity to the Internet of Things and optical communications. Chinese operators can rely on the first-mover advantage in the 5G era, and whether or not they can continue to communicate with each other, will wait and see. .
China or lead the era of 5G
China's 5G construction boom continues to heat up, benefiting from policy support, operators pushing and leading, and chip companies, manufacturers, system vendors, and end-users in the industry chain.
The three major domestic operators are speeding up the 5G layout. At present, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom have all started the construction and testing of prototypes of 5G system outfields in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. At the same time, China's three major operators have finalized the 5G roadmap: China Mobile announced in March this year that it plans to build a 5G pilot network in major cities, and it will be fully commercialized by 2020; China Telecom recently stated that 5G will be commercially available in 2019 and commercialized in 2020. China Unicom also stated that 5G pre-commercial deployment will be implemented in 2019.
China's telecom equipment manufacturers Huawei and ZTE have taken the lead in the world and have been recognized by mainstream operators. Huawei's key technologies have been adopted as core 5G international standards. For example, Huawei's FlexE2.0 frame format and time synchronization scheme have been adopted in the recent 5G bearer key technology FlexEthernet (FlexE) international standard conference. The proposal stands out. At the same time, Huawei is negotiating with several top telecommunications operators in India to promote joint innovation in 5G technologies and has started 5G related tests in India. ZTE announced on November 6th that together with WindTre and Italy's largest mobile operator OpenFiber, it will build the first 5G precommercial network in Europe. The cooperation will include AR/VR, Smart City, Public Safety, 5G Medical and Industry 4.0. At present, ZTE has also initiated 5G R&D and cooperation with many high-end operators such as Japan's Softbank, South Korea's KT, UMobile Malaysia, Deutsche Telekom, and Austria's Drei.
It can be foreseen that China will lead the world in the era of 5G. The "White Paper on 5G Economic and Social Impacts" issued by the China Academy of Information and Communications also pointed out that 2019 will be the first year of 5G commercial use in China.
5G has great value
In recent months, the performance of 5G concept stocks has been quite strong. Taking November 13 as an example, under the influence of the limit of three stocks of Changjiang Communications, Tai Chenguang and Xinyisheng, the stocks of more than 60 stocks in the 5G concept sector have turned red, with the highest increase of nearly 3%. With the rapid development of the 5G industry chain, it is expected that there will be more 5G-related catalytic events in the follow-up period and heat up 5G related investment.
So, what kind of market is the 5G capital? How much value will it bring?
Massive Internet of Things connection is the biggest value point of 5G. Ericsson's 2017 annual report on “The 5G Progress Survey†pointed out that at present, operators’ concerns are no longer confined to individual users. Instead, they begin to look for opportunities in the areas of enterprises and vertical markets. The top three most important to respondents are vertical. The markets are media and entertainment, automobiles, and public transportation. At the same time, most respondents also regard healthcare, energy, and utilities as the most promising 5G deployment areas.
The 5G revolution will greatly promote the development of the upstream optical communication industry. Compared with 4G, the 5G network architecture has undergone major changes and will drive the growth of optical devices in many areas such as pre-transmission and return transmission. For example, optical fiber cables, radio frequency devices, and optical modules will all greatly benefit. The investment in 5G is very large. For the entire 5G industry chain, the most real thing at this stage is the investment in 5G network construction. The next few years will benefit from the recovery of capital expenditures of operators and the new demand brought by 5G investment, which is expected to bring a new round of rapid development to communications companies.
5G era "to go to telecommunication" reform is imperative
The 5G era began to sprint, and operators faced new opportunities and challenges. In particular, after the difference between the traditional construction network coverage and the ecological construction, the “operating†difference between operators is no longer significant. At the same time, the unprecedented unification of the 5G standard is not limited to the influx of flow packages. The strategy of relying solely on operations is too flat and the strategy needs to be deep. Operators' "de-telecomization" reforms are imperative.
First of all, operators should have their own "smart manufacturing industry." In the future of software, operators must increase software development. Secondly, operators need to innovate. Of course, innovation is directional. Now the biggest contradiction among operators is the future of technology homogenization. High investment cannot bring excess returns. Operators need to be innovative in reducing network costs more than ever. In addition, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei proposed that “in the face of increasingly large and complex networks, artificial intelligence is the most important tool for our construction and management of networks.†By borrowing the capabilities of suppliers, operators are still not competitive. Businesses must have their own more efficient artificial intelligence.
Operators and equipment manufacturers who are at the turning point of the industry are still adapting. The future must be the first to accept reality and change actively.
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