After experiencing deep adjustments in 2011 and 2012, the overall trend of the overall upward trend is clear, and the strong pattern will continue into 2014. The income scale and profitability of the automobile industry will all be steadily improved.
In September 2013, the four ministries jointly issued the “Notice on Continued Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehiclesâ€, requiring that the proportion of new energy vehicles in new or updated public transportation vehicles in the demonstration area should be no less than 30%. In November 2013, the first batch of 28 new energy vehicle promotion cities announced that the scale of promotion of new energy vehicles was close to 250,000, of which about 60,000 to 80,000 were for new energy buses.
The sales of new energy vehicles will obviously accelerate and have become the consensus of the industry. At the 4th Global New Energy Vehicle Conference held in Haikou yesterday, Ye Shengji, vice president of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, was optimistic that this year China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 60,000 to 80,000 units, three to four times that of 2013.
Yesterday, Ye Shengji revealed that in 2013, the national automobile production and sales totaled 23 million vehicles, including the sales of new energy vehicles including hybrid vehicles, which was more than 17,000. "This year, under the premise of the hybrid subsidy policy being implemented as soon as possible and breaking local monopolies, China's new energy vehicles are expected to sell 60,000 to 80,000 vehicles, of which passenger cars will reach 30,000." Ye Shengji is optimistic. And this sales figure will be three to four times the sales in 2013.
Among them, the biggest driving force should come from the policy level. In mid-September 2013, a new round of subsidies for new energy vehicles was launched, which triggered an impact on the target of 500,000 vehicles. In the view of Zuo Yanan, the former chairman of Jianghuai Automobile, the new subsidy policy is more scientific. “From the original subsidy to the local finance, now it is transformed into a direct subsidy company, and the enthusiasm of the car companies has increased.â€
Ou Rui Fund Investment Director Ge Yuan also said that at present, the electric vehicle market is essentially a subsidy market. In fact, it is largely affected by the policy. In 2013, the sales were not very good. The main reason is that the subsidy policy is almost stopped. After one year, 2014 is back, and sales will be "hot".
In the view of Pan Xiaofeng, the managing director of Jinshajiang Venture Capital, this year is only the speed-up period for new energy vehicles. In 2016 and 2017, it may become the tipping point for the new energy vehicle industry. In other words, it will really enter a period of rapid development after 2016.
For the growth of market demand, Fu Yi, deputy general manager of Shanghai Putian New Energy Co., Ltd. said that in order to achieve industrial scale development, new energy vehicles must be regarded as an industry. According to him, the construction of basic supporting facilities such as charging stations and charging piles must also be carried out first. For example, Shanghai Putian began to invest in charging stations in Shenzhen in 2009, and has invested 1.3 billion yuan in four years. In the future, China Petroleum, Sinopec and other industrial giants will increase the investment scale of charging station facilities.
Among them, the replacement of traditional buses by new energy buses is not expected to drive large amounts, but will increase the income level of related companies. New energy buses are expected to enter the fast lane for two reasons: First, the price of traditional buses is around 400,000 yuan, and the price of plug-in new energy buses is 800,000-85 million yuan. The charging limitation is the main promotion of new energy vehicles. Obstacles, but the bus operation attributes (fixed lines and financial subsidies) can effectively avoid the above two major problems, so the bus will become the best breakthrough for the promotion of new energy vehicles. And once the new energy bus is on the market, the cost will drop rapidly and the profit margin will rise sharply. Second, the impact of smog has intensified, and the expansion of automobile-restricted cities has become a high-probability event. New energy public transport has two characteristics of “green environmental protection†and “efficient transportationâ€, which will become the preferred tool to supplement urban transportation capacity.
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