Looking forward to 2014: How long can Apple's crest still last?

If you sing now and say that Apple believes that a lot of fruit powder will not be approved, but Apple after Jobs has indeed passed its most brilliant, it is also an indisputable fact. Especially the emergence of iPhone5 and iPad Mini does not have much innovation value. Although the appearance of the iPhone 5S "local gold" has made the fruit powder a little more expectant for Apple, the colorfulness of the iPhone 5C also allows us to see Apple's "assortment." At the end of 2013, Apple eventually swallowed China Mobile's "fat". This world's largest mobile operator has also given Apple a very good expectation in the capital market.

However, there are still a lot of variables for Apple in 2014. Although the apple that has passed the peak has been consolidating at a high level, we also often hear one sentence that has been high for a long time. For the mobile Internet market, the same is true if it is going against the tide. If we cannot continue to be brave, then it will be inevitable that we will continue down the river. How long will the apple remain at the peak in 2014?

Can iPhone6 ​​help Apple continue its glory?

Some media dumped the year-end memo of the CEO of the company, saying that there will be "significant plans" next year. Without saying anything, Apple should indeed change. It is not a simple, negation-like change for the iPhone5S to the iPhone5, but there should be a new and transformative change. Otherwise it is difficult to meet people's growing expectations and deep "superstition" to Apple.

What is the "major plan" of 2014 that Cooke revealed to all Apple employees in the year-end memo? Naturally a product plan. “We have many expectations for 2014. Some of these major projects should be loved by users. I can feel proud to be able to fight with you and work together to innovate the deepest values ​​and highest aspirations of mankind.” Here, the rumor is that the iWatch smart watch will be launched. There are also rumors that Apple will also redesign the new iPhone, possibly using a 4.7-inch screen. Poor, or less than 5 inches. When Samsung has introduced a 6.3-inch screen, Apple is still reluctant to be bigger and bigger.

Of course, the rumor of Apple TV is still a long-standing one. Will Apple honor the rumors in 2014? There is also an interesting product rumors iPad Pro, which is equipped with a 13-inch oversized iPad. The iPad Pro may be a hybrid device that has both laptop and tablet capabilities like a Microsoft Surface.

In fact, while users are paying attention to large-screen iPhones, they also look forward to the release date of the iPhone 6 and whether they can bring about some new expectations. Judging from the current rhythm and secrecy of Apple's leadership in Apple, it has already been very different from the era of Jobs. The effect of secrecy and the mode of hunger marketing have been different. The result is that the fruit powder is sought after. Declined.

Of course, if the iPhone 6 can bring about a new revolutionary change, Cook's change to Apple will be praised, but for now, how likely is this expectation? The author observes very hard. The first is that Apple's iPhone has almost overdrawn the foundation of innovation. After Steve Jobs's maverick has lost. Second, the development of smart phones is too fast. There are already too many ideas in the followers to be accepted by the market, and new ideas are still difficult to emerge. Third, Apple has lost the wisdom of a single brand of innovation, perhaps looking for opportunities in the new product framework, such as the wearable market. Fourth, the market has been narrowed to Apple. In particular, the change of competitors' products has made Apple almost overwhelmed. Fifth, Apple's inertia. The success of the early brand gave Apple an inertia, and the superior's thoughts contributed to Apple's intransigence.

How long will Apple and China Mobile's honeymoon period be?

Apple's move with China Mobile is also expected to come. Whether it is good for Apple or China Mobile. Of course, the capital market has also taken this speculation, especially analysts' expectations for Apple have increased a lot. In this context, perhaps the honeymoon period for Apple and China Mobile will be short. There are also several reasons for this: First, the Chinese market has become a top priority for Apple and it cannot tolerate any mistakes. The result is that Apple has lost more than it paid or looked ahead. Because it is necessary to take care of the balance between the three operators, or Apple can also maintain a good period of time, but when the market is not tight, it will be flat. Second, the wrestle of the three operators is doomed to China Mobile will not have much room for manoeuvre. Although 4G is currently the main push of China Mobile, and benefits from the layout of LTE-TDD, China Mobile will have better development opportunities in the first half of 2014. However, due to the pre-heating of the market and the limitations of 4G layout, people will wait and see. It will make the market with great changes and uncertainties. In addition, when China Unicom can get the LTE-FDD license is also an important fulcrum. Third, how much subsidies will Apple give to Apple? Due to the operator's own profit margin brought about by China Unicom and Telecom's subsidy, I believe that the move in this regard and Apple's share will be abnormally stagnant, presumably this was the focus of the negotiations between the two parties. Because 4G is an expansion market for mobile, it is hoped that it will be a good enough value to lock in the early user base. Therefore, the choice of mobile on price feedback will tend to favor the market and users, and the subsidies for terminal manufacturers themselves will be transparent, of course, Apple. Maybe it will still have certain advantages over other terminal vendors.

China Mobile stated that it will launch a “thousand yuan 4G mobile phone” in 2014, as well as its own branded 4G mobile phones and terminal products developed by China Mobile, and will increase the subsidies for 4G mobile phones. In 2010, China Unicom's subsidies to iPhones and other mobile phones were increased. Net profit fell by 60.87%. China Telecom introduced the iPhone in 2012 and used high-subsidy sales to reduce profits. Subsidies for mid-to-high-end terminals such as Apple, once they are not well-managed, can stimulate the expansion of the mid- to high-end market, but they also bring a heavy profitability burden. This is undoubtedly China Mobile will try its best to avoid it. What's more, with the strong entry of thousands of smart machines, the effectiveness of the terminal subsidy policy will also drop sharply. Smartphones have become increasingly popular and have been used by a large number of users who do not love the Internet. This has led to a decrease in the ARPU. Operators expect that the original intention of using ARPU to cross-compensate terminal subsidies will gradually become difficult to achieve.

Of course, being able to move in the hand is still very successful for Apple, because the capital market is very much in agreement with this cooperation. Some analysts said that the company will increase sales of about 2 million iPhones every quarter. Apple will eventually sell 20 million iPhones to China Mobile each year. This shipment is still very concerned about Apple.

Competition between Apple and Samsung will run through 2014

According to the current pattern of the international mobile terminal market, Apple’s biggest competitor is Samsung. Although the speed of the rise of Chinese domestic manufacturers is very fast, the real strength of the global market and the strengths of these two counterweights do not yet exist. Of course, in the Chinese domestic market, it would be hard to say. Although Apple’s share of China’s domestic market was left behind, with the signing of China Mobile, the development in 2014 will become a lot more complicated. Perhaps competition between Samsung, Apple, and China's local terminal manufacturers in the Chinese domestic market will run through 2014; the wrestling between Samsung and Apple in the global market will continue.

Some analysts believe that if Apple wants to gain more opportunities in the Chinese market, it must launch a cheap version of the iPhone. However, this author is not very optimistic. In fact, the appearance of Apple iPhone5C is to change the price, but this magnitude is too small, almost negligible, which also led to the iPhone5C is becoming a tasteless, because the spread and iPhone5S is not large, and in the corresponding iPhone5S is more accepted by the market in applications and content, so 5S is better than 5C in sales. Unless Apple makes adjustments to the product category in 2014, it will not be able to make it in the low-end market if it is re-arranged in terms of price. However, according to the current development strategy of Apple, it is difficult to cut into the low-end market, and Apple will not reduce its market quality to meet the low-end user groups. After all, Apple is a mobile manufacturer that targets the high-end market, and the high-end market is profitable, and it is Apple's constant pursuit to win larger premium space.

The product premiums in the low-end and middle-end markets need to be sustained by the continuous product innovation and market leadership in the high-end market. They place too much emphasis on product mix management and tactics, and run counter to the core of the Apple brand and the core competitiveness of the company. . As the king of global smartphone shipments, Samsung adopted a complex product portfolio in its product lines and developed localized products for different markets, covering almost a full range of products with more than a thousand smartphones. Its many years of painstaking efforts have laid its own advantages in the core components and supply chain, and in the end it will inevitably translate into a share of the high-end market.

Samsung is the originator of the big-screen mobile phone. On the way to the Apple iPhone, its nirvana is big screen and ultra-thin. In 2011, Samsung took the lead in launching GALAXY Note, the main selling point for big screens, which ignited the enthusiasm of global consumers for large-screen mobile phones. Samsung is now making bolder attempts on large-screen mobile phones. In 2013, Samsung introduced two GALAXY MEGA mobile phones with 5.8-inch and 6.3-inch large screens. Under Samsung’s push, the market for large-screen mobile phones has mushroomed and flourished, quickly becoming the market's development trend and competition. Samsung's achievements in the smart phone market began to let Apple sit on the felt. It is reported that Apple is preparing to launch larger screen mobile phones and tablet computers to cope with Samsung's big screen offensive. According to insiders from Apple's suppliers, Apple has custom-made screens for smartphone prototypes that are larger than the current iPhone's size in recent months, and requested that screens be designed for new tablet computers that are slightly smaller than 13 inches.

In fact, the competition between Samsung and Apple has been a long time, especially after the emergence of the Samsung Galaxy brand, Apple iPhone finally found a competitor, and this competition continues for a long time, the corresponding litigation is endless. Including recently, a South Korean court rejected Samsung’s request for the ban on Apple’s old iPhone and iPad, and determined that Apple did not infringe Samsung’s three mobile communications technology patents. Similar lawsuits have occurred many times. Apple's and Samsung’s mutual niche and competition lawsuits may continue into 2014.