This year's grid investment strategy is most determined

Investment Strategy: In 2015, electrical reform is one of the most important factors affecting the industry. The UHV in grid investment is the most determined, and the growth rate of distribution network is expected to increase. The adjustment of energy structure determines that new energy is still promising, and the quota system and non-fossil energy share increase. Determine the high growth of photovoltaic and wind power next year; nuclear power re-establishment, domestic and export space is huge; state-owned enterprise reform and the Belt and Road Initiative is expected to drive a new round of development of the industry.

The electrical reform will bring about major changes to the industry. The impact on the investment in the power grid will be neutral, and the liberalization of the sales side will bring about innovation in the business model. Companies close to the power sales side will be expected to benefit from it.

UHV is still the most certain part of grid investment in 2015. In 2014, the UHV achieved breakthrough progress. In 2015, it is expected that the construction of triple-doubles will start. It is the peak of approval and start of construction. This year, the two tenders for this year will continue to be delivered and continue to be optimistic about UHV equipment suppliers.

Distribution network construction is expected to accelerate. Although the distribution network construction was affected by the expectations of electric power reform, State Grid auditing and anti-corruption factors in 2014, the changes in the structure of electricity consumption and the increase in the installed capacity of distributed energy have determined the long-term development logic of distribution networks. The diversification of the sale of electricity will also drive the demand for distribution network construction, and it is optimistic about the acceleration of the growth rate of distribution network and distribution automation in 2015.

Photovoltaics is still better, and it is optimistic about power plants and single crystals. It is estimated that in 2015, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 12~13GW. If the benchmark price is lowered at the end of the year, there may be more than expected. The manufacturing process in the middle reaches continues to face pressure, and the price of polysilicon is relatively stable. The downstream power plant development and operation will continue to prosper, and the profit margin will remain at a relatively high level. In the year when distributed photovoltaic power plant construction will break out, the single crystal growth trend will become more pronounced.

The wind power improvement factors have not changed and the industry continues to maintain high growth. It is expected that the installed capacity in 2015 is expected to exceed 22 GW: 1) The amount of wind turbine bidding increased significantly in the first three quarters of 2014 to 17.3 GW year-on-year; 2) There may be rush-installation under the expected 2015 benchmark price reduction; 3) New increase in offshore wind power contribution, increase in installed capacity . The introduction of the quota system and the increase in the proportion of non-fossil fuel resources are the most favorable for wind power, and they are optimistic about wind power operations and equipment.

Nuclear power restarted and thirteenth five-year high-speed development. The nuclear power plan has been upgraded to 58 million kilowatts in 2020, 30 million kilowatts under construction, and a compound growth rate of 20% from 2015 to 2020. Nuclear power has obvious advantages in export, and it can be expected in the future.

Key recommendation companies: recommended high-voltage field Pinggao Electric (600312, buy); photovoltaic industry recommended Longji shares (601,012, buy), Senyuan Electric (002358, buy); wind power recommended gold wind technology (002202, buy Into), Belt and Road recommended Tebian Electrician (600089, buy).