Photovoltaic industry will warm up

At the end of the year and a year earlier, the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad frequently released a series of positive signals, and the industry chain showed a rebound in the prices of the entire product line. Many research institutions generally believe that the global photovoltaic industry is about to recover. Looking into the whole year of 2013, the rise of emerging markets in Asia Pacific and other regions will partially replace the space for exit from Europe and the United States. The annual installed capacity of global photovoltaic power stations is still expected to exceed 32 million kilowatts, of which China's newly installed capacity is expected to reach more than 10 million kilowatts. It is reasonable to expect that the global PV market will eventually switch to stabilizing the upstream channel by the end of 2013.

The market space in China will be rapidly released in 2011. China's installed photovoltaic power capacity will reach 3 million kilowatts. In 2012, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power plants will increase to 7 million kilowatts. In 2013, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power plants was 10 million kilowatts.

From the perspective of the current industry fundamentals, the signal from the market is full of warmth: in the past week, the domestic photovoltaic product prices ended continuous decline in the past 9 months, there has been a rebound, in which single-crystal silicon and single-crystal cell products rose Larger, up-stream polysilicon prices also rebounded slightly.

In addition, on January 2nd, Buffett’s China-US Energy Holding Company announced that it spent US$2.5 billion to purchase PV power plant projects from US Solar Power, which triggered the active participation of photovoltaic concept stocks in multiple capital markets. H-share market-related concept stocks have also been shaken for a time.

Regarding the trend of the photovoltaic market, Guoxin Securities analysts believe that the inefficient production capacity of domestic small and medium-sized photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises will be squeezed out this year, and the supply of the industry will continue to improve, coupled with the rising demand arising from the policy activation effect. The overall bottoming out has already formed. Due to the early adjustment of the PV industry, it is expected that the industry will have a holistic market this year or it is not realistic, but the staged market still can generate a series of investment opportunities.

In the Asia-Pacific region or entering the second growth period From the perspective of global demand, global PV demand will continue to grow next year. The potential for future growth lies in the progress of the European debt crisis and the growth rate of markets such as the United States and Japan. Guoxin Securities analysts believe that the photovoltaic industry is expected to achieve a second high-speed growth at the onset of parity Internet access.

Analysts further believe that although the “double reverse” (anti-subsidy and anti-dumping) in Europe and the United States will hinder the efforts of domestic companies in exporting, the “double reverse” in the United States does not target the upper reaches. Therefore, if domestic companies can find a way to “pass around”, for the upstream materials The silicon wafer sub-sector will not be too bad, so the overseas market has not closed completely. For emerging markets such as Japan, domestic companies can focus on layout.

Recently, the US CEC released the latest statistics on photovoltaic installations in the United States. Statistics show that in the fourth quarter of 2012, total installed capacity in the United States was close to 3.2 million kilowatts, which was higher than the 1.9 million kilowatts in 2011. The American market’s share in the global market was also referred to 10% from 7%.

In 2013, the space of the US photovoltaic market is expected to be further expanded. In Japan, the overall proportion of PV power generation in Japan is relatively small, and its potential for development cannot be underestimated. Some analysts pointed out that after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in March 2011, Japan increased investment and construction efforts in the field of photovoltaic power generation. It is estimated that by 2016, Japan's cumulative installed capacity will exceed 18.5 million kilowatts, and new photovoltaics will be required in 2012-2016. Installed about 14 million kilowatts.

However, it is worth noting that for Chinese component manufacturers, although the domestic market will grow significantly in 2013, the overall market space of Chinese companies may be smaller than that of 2012 due to the “double reverse” effect of Europe and the United States.