I. Current status of China's LED packaging industry
1. Number of companies in China's LED packaging industry
The LED packaging industry has undergone several revolutions since the successful commercialization of LED-packaged devices that can emit white light. From 1998 to 2007, LED packaged devices below 5W were initially commercialized. Due to the high price, the application of LEDs is a niche market and is not well known.
In 2007-2011, with the continuous improvement of LED packaging technology and the continuous decline in chip cost, LED application products have become more popular. At the same time, the support of national policies has promoted the rapid development of China's LED industry. The number of enterprises in the LED packaging industry has rapidly grown from less than 300 in 2007 to more than 700 in 2011.
Figure 1: LED package development history
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Source: Gaogong Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII)
At the beginning of 2011, the application of LED application products in commercial lighting, industrial lighting and other fields gradually gained market recognition. LED applications began to show explosive growth. As a result, the number of enterprises entering the industry increased sharply. By 2014, the number of enterprises has been increased. Increasingly more than doubled in 2011, China has become the most important production base for LED packaging devices worldwide.
The rapid increase in the number of LED packaging companies will inevitably lead to a rapid expansion of production capacity in the industry. As a result, competition in the industry continues to intensify and corporate profit levels decline rapidly. In 2015, due to the slowdown in demand growth and the continued expansion of production by leading manufacturers, China's LED packaging industry suffered heavy losses, and a large number of poorly-operated companies stopped production. As of the end of 2015, there were about 1,216 LED packaging companies in China, and the number of enterprises decreased rapidly at the end of 2014.
The High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII) believes that after years of development, China's LED packaging industry has entered a mature stage from a rapid growth period. The rapid increase of enterprise concentration, large-scale Evergrande and competition return to normal will be the LED packaging industry. main feature. Therefore, GGII expects that the number of enterprises in China's LED packaging industry will further decrease in 2015 based on 2015. By 2020, the competition pattern of China's LED packaging industry will gradually become clear, and the number of enterprises will reach a stable level.
Chart 2: Number of companies in China's LED packaging industry from 2010 to 2020 (unit: home)
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Source: Gaogong Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII)
2. Analysis of the scale of China's LED packaging industry
(1) China's LED packaging industry output value scale
Thanks to the rapid development of LED in the lighting market, the scale of China's LED packaging market has grown rapidly year by year in 2010-2014, with an increase of more than 18%. In 2014, China's LED packaging market reached 56.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.
In 2015, affected by the international economic downturn, LED application market demand was not up to expectations, China's LED market oversupply performance was obvious, LED chip and packaged device prices have seen a significant decline. In 2015, the output value of China's LED packaging industry reached 64.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the growth rate was 7.1 percentage points lower than that of 2014.
The High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII) predicts that the international economy will continue to show a downturn in 2016, LED demand is still insufficient, and the LED industry's future growth is still slowing down. However, the oversupply situation in the LED market will be improved with the reduction of investment in expansion, and the price of the product will be attributed to rationality.
On the whole, GGII expects that the growth rate of output value of China's LED packaging industry in 2016 will rebound slightly on the basis of 2015, the market structure will be adjusted rapidly, and the concentration of enterprises will increase rapidly.
In the next few years, China's LED packaging competition will gradually become clear, and the LED application market demand will gradually stabilize. As a result, GGII expects that the output value of China's LED packaging industry will show steady low-speed growth in the next few years, with an average annual compound growth rate. 6%.
Chart 3: China's LED packaging industry output value scale and forecast for 2010-2020 (unit: 100 million yuan, %)
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Source: Gaogong Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII)
(2) China's LED packaging industry production scale
According to the statistics of the High-tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), the demand for LED packaging in China has increased rapidly in 2012-2014, and the average annual growth rate of demand is above 60%. In 2015, affected by the slowdown in demand and increased competition, The demand for LED packaging slowed down year-on-year. By the end of 2015, the demand for LED packaging industry in China reached 1.16 trillion, an increase of 38.4%.
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