In 2015, as the first year of “one play and two stars,†the entire TV drama industry was once uneasy.
With the development of the Internet, the main audience of the TV series is no longer the mother of the TV, but the young people in front of the iPad. The increasingly younger market environment makes IP dramas and idols more prosperous, but most of them are positive. Gradually withered, the TV drama "Light Age" is coming.
TV stations have not yet adapted to the "one drama and two stars" rule at the beginning of the year. The rapid rise of the Internet drama has brought potential threats: suddenly the collective strong rise, contributed many hot episodes, and switched the broadcast mode to pay. Era... The data analysis company Vlinkage did a data analysis during the television festival this year. The analysis shows that 80% of television dramas will no longer be broadcast on TV for 5-8 years, and TVseries will become historical terms.
According to statistics, the total investment of self-produced dramas by major video sites is as high as 1 billion in this year alone. Industry insiders predict that by 2016, the share will increase by about one-third. The decisive battlefield in these two years is the network. drama. More and more clues show that: The fire of the drama of the Internet can pave the way.
Overall TV drama ratings decline, Hunan largest winner
Under the two stars of the play, especially after the “three episodes†changed to “two episodes†each night, it had a great impact on the Golden Theatre of the TV. In the past, the third episode with the highest share of viewership ratings was currently being “920†by the TV. The program band replaced, which to some extent created a decline in the overall ratings of some TV dramas.
According to comparative data released by CCTV Sofrer, the average ratings of the gold theaters of the major provincial TV stations in this year have almost declined. During the first half of 2015, TV programs broadcast at the Provincial Satellite TV (18:00-24:00), only 15 of them had an average rating of 1, which is more than 21 in 2014. Downward trend.
In addition, the continued decline in the TV operating rate and the flow of viewers to the Internet are also one of the reasons for the floating TV drama ratings in the first half of this year. Data shows that in the first quarter of the first half of the year, the operating rate for the entire day was only 12.065%, which represented a decrease of 4.1% over the same period of last year.
According to comparative data released by CCTV Sofrer, the average ratings of the gold theaters of the major provincial TV stations in this year have almost declined.
Hunan Satellite TV, with the flexible arrangement of the single broadcast strategy, moved the "920" period to 19:30, making the TV drama more "golden" to enjoy "fishing and fishing" and the theater increased by 71.57% over the same period of last year. Shandong Satellite TV, which relied on the precision of the selection of dramas and produced customized dramas, grew by 21.43%.
In the future, television stations cannot afford television dramas.
"One play and two stars" logically want to make more TV dramas that are pressed on the bottom of the box to have a chance to see the light of the day and give the audience more choices.
But the reality is cruel. If the drama is good, even if it's expensive, you can't afford it. Everyone will think about it. If the script is not available, the actor is not able to make it, and the production is not, then it is difficult for someone to buy it if it is cheaper.
If Hunan Satellite TV, which is a casually telecasting drama with a ratings rating of 1, can be considered, it is Jiangsu Satellite TV, which has a budget of 1.2 billion, in 2013 by relying on buying drama to sit second.
The budget for the 2013 purchase of Dragon TV is exactly 800 million yuan, ranking seventh in TV ratings.
However, holding 800 million yuan - astronomical budget sounds, how many stand-alone shows can be bought?
According to the market price in 2013, only 4.21 hot moms can be bought (38 episodes, 5 million episodes).
According to the market price in 2012, only 2.63 units (76 episodes, 4 million episodes/set) can be purchased.
Obviously, money is not enough.
According to a simple logic, after the “one star and two starsâ€, the first-line TVs will use a single broadcast to digest a group of “top dramas†that are pyramid-shaped, and second- and third-line TV stations are likely to be unable to afford the “two starsâ€. "Network broadcast" episode fee.
800 million is almost a critical point, and when the cost of purchasing dramas goes down again, it really cannot afford a good show.
From July 1 this year, Anhui Satellite TV cancelled the original 22-point movie theater and set 9:20, 10:11, and 11:30 time variety shows. In 2014, Anhui Satellite TV left almost all of the evening hours for TV dramas. For TV stations such as Anhui Satellite TV, which is the main TV drama, the impact of the “one drama and two stars†policy last year was self-evident.
"Taiwan with the network" mode rises, TV series or will become a historical term
The data analysis company Vlinkage did a data analysis during the television festival this year. The analysis shows that 80% of television dramas will no longer be broadcast on television for 5-8 years, and TV series will become historical terms. In the future, the television station will be similar to CCTV-6 (movie first theater and then TV) and will play two rounds of TV dramas (first on the Internet or on-demand on-demand and then broadcast to the TV station for free). For this pre-judgment, it seems that there have been confirmed cases.
This year's summer holiday, Tencent video teamed up with TVs in Jiangxi, Sichuan, etc., and adopted the new broadcast model of “Taiwanese with the Internet†for “free users to follow and play + membership pay to see the complete setâ€. Following this, whether the “Taiwanese Network†will affect the amount of broadcasts, whether the charges will prompt users to buy the bills, etc., will promptly cause widespread concern in the industry. In this regard, Fang Fang, director of Tencent's video and TV drama center, said that the number of broadcasts played by Hua Sheng cited not only uninfluenced but all the way up to almost one billion. And, from the upline to the big finale, Hua Wei cited more than one million new users to buy members for the show, which triggered a wave of “membership feverâ€.
Driven by the success of Hua Yi cited, this strategy of Tencent Video continues to push forward, nudity seamlessly catches up with Hua Ying cited, updated two episodes per day, paying users can also see the complete works in advance, becoming VIP in the audience.
The Big Cat, David Vision, and the Big Platform jointly launched the Great Cats and Love Records, which undoubtedly shortened the schedule set by forecasters. On September 17th, another super-cassette big cat chasing Ai Ji will exclusively land Tencent videos and Anhui Satellite TV. This light comedy, which Haiqing and Chen Sicheng cooperated for the first time, was the only urban drama that was broadcast in September against the full screen. Next, there will be more TV dramas broadcast using the "Taiwanese with the network" model, the audience more choices, the opera experience more comfortable and free. This also means that this new broadcast mode of video sites has matured and has been further recognized by the industry.
With the rise of the "Taiwanese with the Internet" model, more video and TV companies are favoring another video website integration method - that is, making a network drama. In the new project prepared by the Tang Dynasty in 2016, 4 of the 10 dramas were net dramas. The CEO of a film and TV company also stated: “The development of the network drama is obvious to all of us, and our survey also found that watching online dramas has seen a linear rise in the number of people watching TV dramas through PC-based, mobile-phone and other network devices. In the project of the year, net play also accounts for 45%."
Video pay to see the complete episode, television station follow-up strategy is feasible?
Whenever, the topic of “charging†was that neither the netizen nor the platform would like to mention it. For netizens, free lunches are used to eating, of course, they are unwilling to spend money; and the attitude of the platform side is also quite low-key, and “charges†may mean the loss of users.
However, in this year's summer holiday, along with the success of Iqiyi Tomb Raider Notes test water charges, it seems that the "charge model" was detonated. Some video sites followed the example of "grave tomb notes" - members watched the platoon for free. The broadcast method broke the existing old model of “removing advertisements, high-definition picture quality, and buffer acceleration†and several other kinds of membership benefits. According to industry insiders, the experience of charging models will become more and more diversified, and the impact on users will fall second. The most important one may affect the middle and upper reaches of the television drama production chain. Producers will see that charging is a viable model. They may be willing to put their works on the Internet first, and then they will get broadcast on TV. A major IP work starring Wu Chih-Lung will precede the TV station first in September. Iqiyi broadcast.
At the Shanghai TV Festival in June of this year, Ichiyi CEO Gong Yu once described the difficulties and difficulties in exploring user charges. He admitted that the cost of such an attempt was high, both in terms of time and money. Gong Yu also announced a data: As of June 15, 2015, iQiyi has paid 5.017 million monthly paid VIP members. With the continuous development of the membership payment business and the cultivation of user spending habits, video payment has become an irreversible trend.
However, this does not mean that the charging model will replace the free model as the mainstream way of watching. According to a survey by the third-party research institution, YiZhan think-tank, “The Survey of Willingness to Pay for Online Cinema Films in 2014â€, only 26% of viewers accepted the price range from RMB1 to RMB3 to watch a movie, and more than 40% The viewer chooses "If it pays, he will not buy it." From this point of view, the VIP members of the current video site are not sticky. According to the quarterly online video released by iResearch, advertising is still the most important profit model in China's online video market. In the first quarter of 2015, video value-added services accounted for only 8.6% of revenue.
Conclusion: The impact of a two-star policy and the rapid growth of video websites has made the traditional television industry enter the most crucial transition period. "The future, 80% of TV dramas will not be premiered on television." This prediction may not be an alarmist but an early warning of the new play methods, new audiences, and new production modes that TV stations will soon face.
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