Polysilicon source prices may fall next year

For the polysilicon source price trend in 2011, solar industry believes that the second half of the solar polysilicon spot market prices rose rapidly, mainly due to the market expected that Europe will cut the subsidies to quickly grab the impact of the impact of the rapid expansion of batteries and modules and expected 2011, The impact of semiconductor out of stock in 2012. However, in 2011, it is estimated that the new production capacity in various industries will be gradually released, which will increase the probability of downward price movements.

Xu Jingrong, chairman of Xujing, believes that the spot price of polysilicon in the second half of 2010 will rise rapidly. This is because the European market will cut solar subsidies significantly in 2011, and the parties will actively pull goods to grab the system, making polysilicon rise.

In addition, as far as the normal industrial operation is concerned, it is reasonable that the silicon wafer factory and the polysilicon source plant will sign and take materials. However, depending on the trend of past high-priced contracts, the silicon wafer factory considers the risk relationship, and most of them are only willing to use a fixed ratio of production capacity and the polysilicon plant. Signing the contract, others would rather reduce the risk by doing OEM work for the battery factory.

The solar cell plant has also experienced shortages in the past. In order to protect its material sources, it has skipped the silicon wafer factory and signed a long-term supply contract with the most upstream polysilicon plant, plus the rapid expansion of battery and module production capacity and the signing rate increase. As a result, the production capacity of many polysilicon plants has been signed by the contract, causing the expected supply to fall short of demand.

In the end, it is the rejuvenation effect of semiconductor industry. It is estimated that semiconductor-grade polysilicon will be short-circuited until 2012, so the old-name polysilicon plant that supplies semiconductor materials mainly will allocate most of the production capacity to the semiconductor industry. Even if the solar plant is signed, it will be long! There is not much material available for the period of nearly two years. Expect psychological effects and then sign more sources.

However, Liao Guorong analyzed that the stability of new polysilicon plants other than the old ones in 2011, including South Korea, Japan, and mainland companies, will increase. It is estimated that the supply of solar polysilicon will be quite sufficient.

Because the demand market in 2011 is still relatively unclear, and the battery plant with rapid production capacity expansion, it also rushed into the upper reaches of the signing of polysilicon source, once the end market demand is loose, it is expected that the battery plant or other non-silicon wafer factory in the polysilicon spot The market sells excess polysilicon, causing the polysilicon spot market price to drop.

Liao Guorong said that at present, the spot price of polysilicon is about 70 US dollars per kilogram, and it is estimated that the second half of 2011 will most likely encounter new production capacity and impact the market supply, so that prices will drop significantly. If the new supply is large, it will return to the first half of 2010. The chance of 50 US dollars per kilogram is not low.