3D TV industry falls into operating quagmire: lack of content, lack of business opportunities

2011 was known as the "3D TV first year." With the 3D boom sweeping across the market, most consumers are taking a stand-off attitude, in stark contrast to the enthusiasm of many manufacturers. Nowadays, the trend of the entire industry has evolved into a "hukou to eat": video sites to be "directors", grab the film company's business; e-commerce own construction logistics, want to grab the industry's jobs. In the Internet era, the positioning of enterprises has been "disruptive." “Grab the upper reaches” is an impulse. The industry chain is imperfect, and it is worth noting that there are no problems on the surface. In fact, there is an unpredictable risk hidden in the middle. The color TV industry is just that.

In accordance with this "grab the upper hand" impulse, now the boss of 3D TV manufacturers, must be the film producer, and in fact, this is basically "Arabian Nights". Originally, the 3D industry chain should also be as well organized as other industries: do a good terminal terminal, do content and do content. Just like kind of fruit good fruit, selling fruit juice sells fruit juice.

However, chaos is now frequent: The terminal's speed is much faster than the content. Under the trend of the times, the development of the "upstream" 3D content is lagging behind and desolate, and 3D TVs have gradually become simple high-definition TVs because of "no rice in the pot."

Of course, this did not stop TV manufacturers from "going ahead." According to the survey data of Beijing Zhongyekang era, the cumulative penetration rate of 3D TVs in 2011 was 14.4%. According to the weekly retail monitoring data of Yuanchun Market, the domestic penetration rate in January 2012 exceeded 30%.

Beijing Lingji Consulting official said that 3D TV has attracted the attention of consumers before it is listed. This is rare in the history of color TV industry. After the listing, the retail penetration rate of 3D TVs in flat-panel TVs began to rise rapidly. .

Hardware vendors fry "3D" gimmicks

Currently, there are not many viewing channels for 3D TVs, including cinemas, stores, and families. The "supply" of the theater is not sustainable and the cost is high; the 3D TV in the store can only be used as a purchase standard; the family is mainly limited to the 3D channel that was launched at the beginning of the year. In general, consumers can see very little 3D content.

According to the survey conducted by the Lingji Consulting, only 65% ​​of consumers have seen 3D content in theaters, stores, and homes. 95% of consumers said that they are currently constrained by high-definition set-top boxes, digital turnaround, and 3D TVs. Unable to watch 3D TV channels.

Nevertheless, the charm of 3D terminals is still not small. The data shows that among the consumers who are preparing to purchase TV in the near future, more than 85% of consumers clearly expressed their desire to have 3D functions on TV. The market demand for 3D TV is still huge.

The demand arises from consumers pursuing the trend but lacks a clear understanding of 3D technology. According to survey data, consumers do not have a clear understanding of the two major 3D technologies. Up to 82% of consumers do not know the difference between active shutter 3D and polarized 3D. When purchasing products, consumers are not particularly sensitive to 3D technical characteristics. On the contrary, they are more cautious in terms of brand, price, and entertainment functions.

TV makers are creating a "stove" for whom the lack of 3D content is already expected. According to Hu Hongsen, deputy general manager of Lingji Consulting, terminal companies are pushing this gimmick, and the development of the 3D industry needs a new concept to lead. In the market of color TV, the profit rate is not very high. In this fierce competition platform, they only keep on launching new concepts and technologies to survive.

Content development loses on the starting line

The "new concept" spreads far beyond imagination, so that the upstream 3D content providers have not kept pace. This has inevitable reasons: The threshold for 3D content production is high, the cost is high, and the technology is not yet universal. Hu Hongsen said: "The price of shooting equipment for 3D content is very high, and the supply of talents is also very small, so ordinary companies and TV stations are reluctant to do it."

From the status quo point of view, the 3D industry is losing at the starting line, and the content has been running slow for a year. On January 1, 2012, China's first 3D TV test channel went online, and people in the industry have high hopes that the lack of 3D content will usher in a turnaround. However, in the past three months, the entire industrial chain has remained confined.

The first is that there are more restrictions. 3D channel staff told the author, first of all must be equipped with high-definition television set-top boxes, decoding 3D television signals; then have 3D TVs and display devices; Finally, plus wear active, polarized 3D glasses, the above conditions are indispensable.

Content sources also have limitations. The staff member said: “The 3D channel is still in the experimental stage. It is jointly organized by six units including CCTV, Beijing Radio and TV Station, and Shanghai Radio and TV Station. The programs are all sent by them. The 3D channel is only used as one of CCTV and other TV stations. After testing the water, the content will gradually increase."

Therefore, the 3D channel has to take "rotational bombardment" in content processing, and the playing time is very short. It is understood that the specific measures adopted by the 3D TV channel are the first broadcast of 4.5 hours per night, two replays each day, and a total broadcast of 13.5 hours. The main contents are scenery, documentaries and variety shows.

Market conditions operating model dilemma

Hu Hongsen said, "At present, operators can not find a good industrial model, which seriously restricts the development of the industry." He believes that the production of 3D content is very complicated, not the camera you want to shoot, the most critical The reason is that the cost is too high to find the bearer. "Such as 3D TV should not be charged? Will the audience be willing to spend?"

Taking into account this risk, the general 3D content providers dare not easily advance: First, the profit model is not resolved, and second, whether the people can see it is difficult to guarantee. This is an important reason why "there is a lack of content, the terminal first", "The manufacturer's idea is to push the terminal first," Hu Hongsen said.

The terminal is not yet universal, and it is difficult for content providers to see business opportunities. Hu Hongsen believes that no one will look and no one will pay for the cost, and content providers will naturally not be willing to do so. Before the “3D concept” got to work, these hardware manufacturers also had this type of anxiety: if there is a lack of viewers, there is no difference in whether to add 3D capabilities, but only to increase costs. Of course, this stage has long been a thing of the past.

As a result, 3D content providers are also considering "take shortcuts." At present, the material of 3D content is divided into four types: camera footage, computationally generated footage, 2D to 3D, and movies. In fact, there are many 2D content in the 3D test channel, there are some large movies, such as Blu-ray discs, and some of the content is direct 2D to 3D. Hu Hongsen said: "Overall, there is less real 3D content, and there will be more live broadcasts in the future, such as the London Olympic Games."

In this regard, the 3D test channel staff told the author that if there is no news reporter to speak, or open information, these people will not say anything. However, he revealed that the London Olympic Games may have a 3D live broadcast. "It's just possible, I'm not sure about it." He said that the above documents have been issued, and the content has this one. "This is mainly to test whether the 3D signal is feasible. ."

"Upstream" bottleneck high cost control

On the other hand, the development of 3D content has a tendency of “one size fits all”. According to the survey conducted by the Lingji Consulting, consumers mainly favor movie blockbusters, and they are not particularly interested in professional films and documentaries. Insiders pointed out that watching movies with 3D effects is appropriate, but for soap operas, news and advertisements? Are all 3D content production standards?

The current status of 3D channels is precisely based on variety films and documentaries. This is the bottleneck of the entire 3D industry. However, Hu Hongsen said that this situation can be understood, "these are relatively low, and large-scale costs are very high. But from the demand point of view, we still hope to see some large-scale." Consumer demand is very clear, according to the Ling-based data survey. It shows that 86% of consumers believe that there is a lack of 3D content, and there are few access channels and high costs; 52% of consumers want to see 3D movies and TV shows, and 17% of consumers want to see 3D sports events.

The strange thing is that in the absence of content, consumers are willing to "a willingness to make a wish." According to the survey data of the spirit-based survey, 63% of consumers think that they want to “get in one step and don’t want to change TV in the short term” for the reasons for purchasing 3D TVs. 32% said that “TV stations are broadcasting 3D channels and hope to experience them as soon as possible”. . This shows that the spread of 3D concepts and terminals has fully opened the market.

Development trend goes down the price altar

It took 3 years for the 3D TV to go down from the altar of God for a year. How long will the high cost status of 3D content be maintained? This is two questions. The price of 3D TVs is subject to the relationship between supply and demand. When the amount of goods in the hands of consumers increases, prices will naturally fall back.

Today, television manufacturers have a rapid development momentum. In a short period of one year, 3D TVs have undergone disruptive changes in the product's richness and supply. The 3D test channel staff said: "The current 3D TV is already very cheap, and when the technology is mature, it will be cheaper in the future."

However, with different 3D content, it faces an industrial chain problem. Hu Hongsen said that the content cost cannot be reduced within a short time. "A lot of shooting equipment is still very expensive, and there is no good profit model to pay for the cost, so it will maintain a relatively high level in the short term."

This is not a task that a business can accomplish. "Need to create an atmosphere, we all do it, and after the market is bigger, the average cost will go down." He believes that terminal vendors and video providers must pay attention to cost issues, and then the government provides funds in the middle, "3D Test Channel The opening of the broadcast is a good example.” He admitted that government guidance, the training of talented people, the stickiness of users, and subsidies from operators may be the core issue of the 3D industry.

Without continuous content, 3D TVs will eventually exhibit insufficient stamina. High-cost, high-tech, and lack of an operating model ... These cannot be resolved, and content providers will be "junctured." Even though, terminal manufacturers can walk in the cloud with the “3D gimmick”, if the upstream is weak, 3D TV will naturally become a kind of decoration. It may be that the name "3D TV" is too tempting, assuming that its full name is changed to "TV with 3D playback capability". This may enable consumers to more clearly clarify the current status of the domestic 3D industry.