Smartphone battle is a replica of the old days of computer warfare

If history can learn from it, RIM will become the loser in the consumer and business smartphone market. iPhone will bring steady income to Apple. Google Android will basically take over everything, and Microsoft will scratch its head.

- Paul Venice

The current competitive landscape of smart phones is surprisingly familiar. This movie was staged before. The name has changed and the character hasn’t changed. Today's actor is RIM, Apple, Google and Microsoft. Twenty years ago, the actors were IBM, Apple, Microsoft and Novell.

Before IBM controlled the computer market, it was hardly any threat. Subsequently, IBM launched a personal computer. Although there are a few competitors, IBM did not look at them. However, other manufacturers are very concerned about personal computers. Apple introduced the Macintosh to show how an intuitive computer interface should work. Apple always guarantees the exclusive rights and closeness of the product. At the same time, Microsoft is open to everyone and the product is widely recognized. IBM, aware of its own mistakes, began to aggressively promote OS/2, but eventually gave up and accepted the failure.

To sum up, in the personal computer war, IBM missed the opportunity to make full use of the personal computer market. Apple has created superior products, but it lacks external authorization and its market share is extremely limited. Microsoft has become a giant with the success of Windows and Office. Novell strives to show everybody that NetWare is a superior network operating system than Windows NT, but all this has been in vain under Microsoft's strong dominance.

This pattern is similar to that between RIM, Apple, Google and Microsoft. RIM and IBM have unfortunately similarities: The smart phone market is basically created by it, and RIM enjoys the successful experience as the only provider of commercial communications equipment. But it became lazy, basically stopped innovation, and produced mobile phones that had fallen behind competitors for several years. Apple is about the same position as at the time. Through the iPhone, Apple intuitively demonstrated how the smartphone's user interface should work. Apple's products are highly sought after, but can only use Apple's approved applications to work on Apple's hardware. Google is in the former Microsoft position because it is not as good as Apple's iOS. However, Google has already obtained Android licenses in many places. For many people, Android is "good enough" - it can run on almost any device. Microsoft is undoubtedly in the position of Novell before. Windows 7 phones lack the inspiration and will be aimless for years, then replaced by follow-up products with the same features.

If history can learn from it, RIM will become the loser in the consumer and business smartphone market. The iPhone will bring steady income to Apple. Google Android will basically take over everything because of its ubiquity. RIM and Google are unfamiliar with this competition. Undoubtedly, after the initial success of the iPhone, Jobs knew where the situation was going, but he insisted on using the Macintosh strategy again on the iPhone. Obviously, Jobs has always valued quality, not quantity. He prefers to occupy only a small part of the market and provide the best user experience, rather than becoming a market leader and giving up control over his work. RIM must keep in mind and understand that unless there is a magical, revolutionary new product release, RIM cannot avoid failure. Although Oracle's patent litigation may bring some unhappiness, Google is now gaining momentum. What's left is Microsoft, who is scratching his head and wondering why it became Novell in the smartphone wars.