In the medium to long term: We expect the global semiconductor industry to slow down. From a technical perspective, due to the fact that Moore's Law is approaching the limit, there have been some bottlenecks in the development of semiconductor technology, and the degree of integration has become increasingly difficult to develop in terms of geometric progression. Analyze from the market level: First of all, at present, the components that are suitable for the use of integrated circuits in electronic products have basically adopted a variety of chips, and some traditional components, such as passive components and integrated circuit technologies, are increasingly used. small. At present, the proportion of semiconductors in electronic products has risen very slowly, and the application rate of integrated circuits in electronic products has reached the maturity stage of the S-curve. Another important reason is that the average price of semiconductor products continues to fall. And when semiconductor products gradually shift from enterprise application products to consumer products, due to the high sensitivity of ordinary consumers to price, the prices of semiconductor products will fall faster. The last factor is the transfer of production capacity. As more and more semiconductor products are moved from developed regions to developing regions, prices have also accelerated.
In the general trend of the global semiconductor industry's slowdown in overall growth is accompanied by the adjustment of industrial structure and the redistribution of production capacity of the industrial chain in the region. Semiconductor industry developed regions and underdeveloped regions will develop differently in the semiconductor industry chain according to their own advantages.
Packaging capacity continues to shift the traditional IDM vendors Face to the ever-changing pace of semiconductor technology and the expansion of capital demand, it also tends to reduce its business coverage and focus on its own core areas of strength to those who focus on its upstream or downstream The companies in the link cooperate and even support.
The most typical example is AMD, the world's second-largest CPU manufacturer, which spun off its manufacturing operations in 2009. It cooperated with oil capital in the Middle East to establish GlobalFoundreis, a foundry manufacturing company, and acquired Chartered, Singapore, becoming the third-largest round in the world. Crystal manufacturing foundry companies.
INTEL is not far behind in capacity transfer. Currently, INTEL has 15 chip manufacturing plants worldwide, of which 9 are wafer fabs and 6 are encapsulation testers. Due to technical restrictions on export, INTEL still retained major fabs in the United States, but INTEL has built all of its packaging and testing plants outside the United States, of which five are in Asia.
Japanese and European semiconductor companies do not lose their North American counterparts in terms of capacity transfer. Fujitsu, a Japanese company, has been transferring its semiconductor manufacturing operations since it established a joint venture in China in 1997 to conduct packaging business. So far it has closed down one of its three packaging plants in Japan, and plans to transfer its entire Japanese domestic packaging capacity to China in the future. Toshiba Semiconductor shut down its Japanese packaging plant in 2010. Currently, wafer manufacturing is outsourced to TSMC and Samsung, and packaging is outsourced to companies in mainland China and Taiwan. The outsourcing ratio has reached 80%. In addition, global well-known semiconductor companies such as Freescale Semiconductor and Saiichifa have established chip packaging and testing bases in China.
According to a survey conducted by Gartner in March 2010, the global semiconductor packaging test market shrank by 16.4% in 2009, and the market size reached 38 billion US dollars. The outsourcing OEM packaging market reached US$17.2 billion, accounting for 45.2%. With the recovery of the global economy in 2010, Gartner expects that the semiconductor packaging market will rebound strongly by 17.7%, the market size will reach 44.8 billion U.S. dollars, and the outsourcing contract packaging market will reach 21.7 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 26.2%. It is estimated that the semiconductor packaging market will grow to 59.1 billion U.S. dollars in 2010-2014, and the growth rate of the outsourcing OEM market will continue to be higher than that of the entire industry. The proportion will maintain an upward trend, and it is expected to exceed the IDM packaging market in 2011 and 2012.
After drawing lessons from the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000, the global semiconductor industry has changed the strategy of wantonly investment, carefully controlling production capacity, and actively improving the financial structure. Low-liability operations have become the consensus of the industry. In addition, the outsourcing process of IDM manufacturers has accelerated, creating more opportunities for the packaging industry. On the whole, the entire industry has entered a “quality change†process characterized by light asset management by enterprises, accelerated outsourcing by IDM, and the transition of markets to developing regions such as mainland China. In the coming years, the packaging industry will grow more than it expects to surpass the entire semiconductor and foundry industry. We expect the general trend of the fine division of labor and capacity transfer in the semiconductor industry to continue, and domestic semiconductor companies are expected to grasp this trend and usher in a new round of development.
Packaging is the focus of China's semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry as a whole is supported. China's semiconductor industry lags far behind the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The specific characterizations are: First, there are few companies engaged in business; Second, the industrial chain is incomplete; Third, technology depends on imports, and it is relatively backward. In view of the backwardness of the industry, the state has also increased its support for policies. Based on the high importance of integrated circuits for the national economy and national security, the Chinese government has consistently paid great attention to the development of the integrated circuit industry and has adopted a number of preferential measures.
The "Policy to Encourage the Development of the Software Industry and Integrated Circuit Industry" (No. 18) and follow-up implementation rules formed in June 2000 implemented tax incentives for chip companies. In January 2008, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the “Circular on Certain Preferential Policies for Enterprise Income Taxes†to further clarify the preferential income tax policies enjoyed by IC companies. In the “Electronic Information Industry Restructuring and Revitalization Plan†passed in February 2009, “Building an Autonomous and Controllable Integrated Circuit Industry System†is considered as one of the three major tasks for the development of the domestic domestic information industry in the future, and it is among the five major development initiatives. It is clearly stated that "increase investment and concentrate on implementing integrated circuit upgrades." In 2011, “Several Policies on Further Encouraging the Development of Software Industry and Integrated Circuit Industry†(new document No. 18) was also successfully introduced. In terms of fiscal policy, there are as many as 9 related preferential policies in the “New 18†article, and 4 more than the 18th article. In addition to continuing to implement the software value-added tax preferential policies defined in the original “18 Documentâ€, other tax incentives have been further strengthened and improved in the process of development. Compared with the original document, the New Deal still has some differences. It also added elements such as investment and financing support. For the first time, it raised the advantages of taxation and capital to promote the development of the advantageous industries of the software industry and the integrated circuit industry, mergers and acquisitions, and the consolidation of industrial resources. This will help further increase the degree of industry concentration.
In addition, of the sixteen major branch-level projects established by the country, two are closely related to the semiconductor industry. The main objectives of the "core electronic devices, high-end general-purpose chips and basic software products" (nuclear high base) major projects are: to catch up with the rapid development of international technologies and industries in the field of chips, software and electronic devices, and to overcome high-end general-purpose chips and basics. Key technologies for software and core electronics. The "very large-scale integrated circuit manufacturing equipment and complete sets of process projects" (02 special project) is specifically aimed at improving the overall level of China's integrated circuit manufacturing industry, and to overcome the core technology of VLSI manufacturing.
According to the national development plan and strategy, it is expected that in the future the country will introduce more preferential policies for the integrated circuit industry, which will effectively promote the healthy and steady development of China's integrated circuit industry.
Chip design technology investment, high barriers We carefully analyze the upstream and downstream processes of the semiconductor industry chain, the industry characteristics between the various links are more and more obvious, the difference is growing. First, look at the asset-based chip design (Fabless) business, which is a highly technology-intensive industry. After several decades of technology accumulation, European, American, and Japanese companies have now basically grasped the core technology of chip design in their hands and established a monopoly.
Wafer manufacturing capital investment is large, it is difficult to see again to see the Foundry business. This is a capital and technology-intensive industry, but it is mainly capital-intensive. The key equipment for the fab, Lithography, is priced between US$10 million and US$100 million. A round of wafer factory investment is now planned on a billion-dollar scale.
At the same time, from the technical point of view, the difficulty of the continued advancement of Moore's Law will increase day by day, and the R&D expenses will inevitably increase gradually. Take TSMC's TSMC as an example, R&D personnel have tripled in the past five years, and R&D spending has tripled in the same period. The most important reason is that the difficulty of technological development caused by Moore's Law approaching the limit has increased. Moore's Law predicts that semiconductor integration will double every 18 months. Looking back at history, Moore's Law is correct, and the line width of integrated circuits has grown to micron level to nanometer level. At the same time, the upgrading of wafer manufacturing technology is also accelerating, from the micron-level acceleration to the nano-level, from 90nm to 65nm to the current CPU CPU 45nm technology update time interval shortened, is currently in the 20nm-level process research. But now, the optical development method has reached its limit and it is difficult to further reduce the wafer size. In the future, there will be a need to switch to non-optical development methods, which means higher costs.
According to the analysis of International Business Strategies (IBS), with the development of Moore's Law, the improvement of chip integration and the reduction of linewidth, the number of companies in the global wafer companies that can provide corresponding technologies has shrunk from 15 in the 0.13um technology era to 9 of the 45 nanotechnology era. IBS expects that there will be only 5 and 3 companies in the 32-nanometer and 22-nanometer eras, respectively. "The Matthew effect" will be reflected in the wafer manufacturing industry.
The packaging and testing industry is best suited to China's development of the semiconductor industry and finally to the package industry. This is a technology and labor-intensive industry and the most labor-intensive in the semiconductor industry chain. We refer to the per capita creation revenue targets of MediaTek, TSMC, ASE, and ASE in Taiwan’s domestic semiconductor industry chain. We can see that the per-capita revenue generated by the IC design industry focused on technology is about three times that of the wafer manufacturing industry. About 10 times that of the packaging and testing industry. The per-capita revenue generated by the technology and capital-intensive wafer manufacturing sector is about three times the per-capita revenue generated by chip packaging. The two links in the semiconductor industry have significant differences in labor costs.
Taking into account the comprehensive level of China's semiconductor industry, we believe that semiconductor packaging testing is the most suitable for Chinese companies to enter the global semiconductor industry chain. The basic logic is also very clear. The technical barriers in the field of chip design are very high. China's current weak technical reserves in the semiconductor industry do not have the strength to directly snatch up the market of international large manufacturers. Chinese chip design companies can only engage in some of the more basic in some small industries. The development work does not have the strength of international competition. In the Jingyuan manufacturing industry, on the one hand, the process of technological upgrading is accelerating. On the other hand, the requirements for capital and technology are relatively high and the risks are relatively large. The “Matthew effect†of the industry is obvious, and it is now difficult for new companies to enter the Park’s manufacturing industry. Increasing constantly. The semiconductor packaging industry is the one with the lowest technical requirements in the three-tier structure of the integrated circuit industrial chain, and it is also the most labor-intensive area. It is most suitable for Chinese companies to cut into the semiconductor industry with relatively low labor advantages.
Semiconductor packaging testing is the industry that the global semiconductor companies first transferred to China. In recent years, China's packaging and testing companies have grown rapidly. Foreign semiconductor companies have also transferred large-scale packaging and testing production capacity to China. Packaging and testing business outsourcing has become an inevitable choice for international IC manufacturers. Since 2007, more than 10 IDM companies have sealed up. With the factory closed, China's semiconductor packaging and testing industry is full of vitality. The packaging and testing industry has become the main body of China's semiconductor industry, occupying half of the country, and it has also begun to move closer to the international advanced level in technology. The world's packaging and testing capacity has accelerated its transfer to China, and China's market for packaging and testing continues to grow. The semiconductor packaging and testing industry faces good opportunities for development.
According to the statistics of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, China's integrated circuit production in the first half of 2010 was 30.25 billion pieces, and the industry realized sales revenue of 66.6 billion yuan, an increase of 45.1% over the first half of 2009. The chip design industry sales volume reached 12.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.8%; chip manufacturing sales revenue was 20.921 billion yuan, an increase of 51%, and packaging and testing also sales revenue was 32.835 billion yuan, an increase of 61.4%. According to the preliminary statistics of the association, in 2010 China's integrated circuit industry had sales of 142.4 billion yuan, of which chip design industry sales 38.3 billion yuan, chip manufacturing sales 40.9 billion yuan, packaging and testing industry sales of 63.2 billion yuan. The packaging and testing process is a relatively mature process in China's IC industry chain. Its production value once occupied 70% of the total output value of China's IC industry. "In recent years, due to the rapid development of integrated circuit design and chip manufacturing in China, the proportion of the industry has declined, but it still occupies half of the country's integrated circuit industry. With the 'Moore's Law' approaching its physical limits, the industry It is becoming more and more important to realize that in the era of 'post-Moore's law', the industry of packaging and testing will provoke the girders of technological advancement." Conversely, the distribution of the output value of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry is focused on wafer manufacturing, and the chip design and packaging testing are in parallel. situation.
We predict that the global semiconductor industry in the future will show obvious regional characteristics. The pattern of Europe, the United States and Japan is the "chip design" wafer design "package test, the pattern of Taiwan is the wafer manufacturing" chip design "package testing, and China's pattern is the package test "chip design" wafer manufacturing.
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