In 2009 , although the international financial crisis has cast a shadow over the development of domestic fiber optic cable companies, China's fiber optic cable industry has gone through an explosion under the influence of multiple factors such as domestic demand, 3G construction, and FTTH construction. During the same year of growth, the new round of industry consolidation and investment climax also kicked off. Looking back at the past and looking to the future, how the development of Chinese industries is worthy of consideration by everyone in the industry. Fiber optic cable
First, the composition and development status of optical fiber cable industry
1. Key technologies and industry composition
Since the practical application of optical fiber communication for more than 30 years, the manufacturing technology of optical fiber and optical fiber cable has grown by leaps and bounds, and the product variety has been continuously enriched. Due to the large-scale application and improvement of production efficiency, the cost of optical fiber and optical cable products continues to decrease while the performance index continues to increase. This has led to the continuous expansion of optical fiber applications. At present, the domestic optical fiber and cable industry has formed a complete industrial chain system, including the main industrial chain consisting mainly of optical rod manufacturing, optical fiber drawing and optical cable manufacturing, and various sub-industry chains such as optical fiber and cable materials formed by the expansion of epitaxy. The industrial chain is rapidly expanding with the expansion of fiber optic applications.
In the optical fiber cable industry chain system, we believe that there are considerable gaps between the two key technologies in China and the international advanced level, that is, “one by oneâ€. “One end†is a light stick manufacturing technology that everyone knows. In recent years, under the strong support of the country and the continuous investment of the company, the domestic light stick manufacturing technology has achieved rapid development, and technological breakthroughs and large-scale manufacturing are within easy reach. It is believed that within 2 to 3 years, the domestic light-bar manufacturing capability can basically meet the market demand. Then, in addition to the "one tail," many people do not realize that it is an extension of the application field. The development of fiber optic cable technology has not been applied in the traditional sense. Now it seems that in the field of medicine, sensing, Many aspects such as power grid security protection have been applied, of course, including more areas that we have not yet used. In this respect, we have not had much participation from powerful companies. The domestic fiber optic cable industry infrastructure cannot be established only in the traditional sense of communications, and in the near future it will be basically saturated. We should continue to innovate, continue to invest in R&D, strengthen cooperation with various industries, and continue to expand new applications for fiber optics. Only in this way can our industry continue its healthy development.
2. China's status as a major manufacturing country in the optical fiber and cable industry has been established, but the level of industrial development is not balanced and needs to guard against the risks arising from the new round of capacity expansion.
1 ) At present, China's optical fiber and cable have established the status of a major manufacturing country
According to the latest data for 2010 CRU, 2009 global single-mode fiber aggregate demand reached 168.5 million core km, an increase of 24% compared to 2008, in which China singlemode fiber demand grew by 89%, compared with rest of the world The demand for single-mode fiber in the region decreased by 4% . China's single-mode optical fiber demand reached 78.8 million core kilometers, accounting for 46.8% of the world's total demand, and has become the world's largest fiber optic cable consumer market for three consecutive years. After three years of continuous leaps and bounds, China has formed the world's largest optical fiber and cable industry and formed a complete light, fiber, and fiber cable industry chain. In 2009 , China's national fiber drawing enterprises produced 60.40 million core kilometers of optical fibers, of which Longfei, FiberHome, and Fortis optical fiber production all reached more than 10 million core kilometers. In 2009 , the total output of optical fiber cables in the world was 172 million core kilometers, and the output of China's optical fiber cable alone. With an area of 80.42 million core kilometers, accounting for 46.8% of the world's total production, and the capacity is still expanding, China's large optical cable companies have become a world-class large-scale enterprise group. 5122009
2 ) The level of industrial development is not balanced
Although China has formed a complete industrial chain including optical fiber preforms, optical fibers and fiber optic cables, and the scale of the industry ranks first in the world, there are still a series of problems in the entire industry development process.
First of all, 70% to 80% of the optical rod industry also relies on imports, and the share of domestic preforms has been maintained at around 20% , with no major development. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the profit ratio of upstream raw material optical fiber preforms, optical fibers, and optical fiber cables is approximately 7 : 2 : 1 . Therefore, the preform manufacturers took away 70% of the profits of the entire industry and dominated the industrial chain. . The price of the preforms was controlled by foreign companies, and the huge profits of light bars were earned by foreign companies. China relies on the purchase of sticks for drawing. The price of the optical rods is high, and it is difficult to reduce the cost of optical fibers. Moreover, the price of optical fibers is low and the profit margin of optical fiber companies is minimal.
Secondly, fiber optic cable products have been highly homogenized, prices have become the only means of competition, and some companies do not hesitate to reduce the quality of products in order to reduce costs. China Tell Laboratory has said: "Inspection agencies in recent years of fiber optic cable testing found that fiber optic cable product failure rate of 20% to 30% ."
Third, our capacity for independent innovation needs to be enhanced. There is still a certain gap between China's enterprises in terms of R&D, production, and key aspects of core technologies for optical fiber and cable, compared with foreign countries. The core technologies of new types of optical fibers and optical cable products, such as G.657 optical fibers and air-blow micro-fiber cables, are developed overseas and are only being tracked and developed in China.
These gaps have, to a large extent, limited the healthy and rapid development of China's optical fiber and cable industry. Therefore, the domestic industry must not only be big but also stronger. We must adhere to independent innovation and breakthrough bottlenecks, and strive to achieve breakthroughs in the key areas of optical fiber and cable production, and form a group of products with independent intellectual property rights. At the same time, fiber optic cable companies and telecom operators must strengthen the interaction of the industry chain, promote all parties in the industrial chain to achieve a win-win situation, and create a greater space for development in the fiber optic cable industry.
3 ) Risk brought by new round of capacity expansion
The development of the fiber optic cable industry in China has experienced three periods of rapid development. The first expansion period from 1991 to 1994 made China's optical cable capacity reach 1 million core km / year; during the second expansion period from 1999 to 2001 , the production capacity reached 30 million core km / year; in 2008 During the third expansion period in 2009 , the domestic optical fiber production capacity has spanned over 100 million kilometer-km / year, and the optical fiber cable production capacity is even greater. This round of expansion has three major new features: First, large-scale fiber optic cable companies continue to expand their scale; second, both optical fiber and optical fiber production capacity have doubled from the beginning of 2008 ; third, powerful companies have started joint ventures to establish light rod production. Base, competition extends to the upstream of the industry chain.
It should be noted that under the influence of the international financial crisis, the large-scale expansion of domestic industries has further established China’s status as the world’s largest fiber optic cable manufacturing country, and it also brings certain risks.
It can be foreseen that China’s optical fiber demand will remain at 60 million core kilometers to 80 million core kilometers in the next 2 to 3 years, and there is currently a gap in domestic optical rod production capacity, but light rod imports will continue to decrease in the next 2 to 5 years. It will eventually match the fiber drawing capacity; while China's optical fiber drawing capability will exceed domestic demand by 20% to 30% , competition in optical fiber will begin to shift to production efficiency, process routes and other cost-influencing links; as for cable manufacturing, the entry barrier is low. In recent years, the manufacturing capacity has been greater than the market demand. In 2009 , the short-term supply of optical fiber cables was in short supply, which was actually caused by the shortage of optical fibers. It was not a problem of optical cable manufacturing capacity. The new round of capacity expansion of optical cables is mainly carried out by big manufacturers, and has a relatively high starting point and a large number of expansions. At present, the harm caused by the blind expansion of optical cables is increasingly evident.
These rounds of capacity expansion are the inevitable result of increased market demand. It is a problem that China, which is already in the world’s largest market, will continue to grow in future. Therefore, grabbing the market from the hands of relatively weak opponents becomes a test of survival. Such a huge Behind the production capacity, the impact of any decline in market demand will result in irrational price reductions and the risk of product quality degradation.
Second, the development direction of China's optical fiber cable industry
1. Speed ​​up the process of localization of light sticks and improve the industrial chain
Accelerating the process of localization of light sticks is to solve the current bottleneck and short board problems in industrial development. A few years ago, some domestic large manufacturers have already realized this problem and have put forward their own development plans and goals in the light bar industry. For example, Fenghuo Communication and Fujikura Corporation established a joint venture in 2009 with Fujikura Fiber Optoelectronics Technology Co., Ltd. Optical fiber industrial prefabricated rod base, with a production capacity of 10 million kilometers of precast rods after the first phase of the project is completed, will become an important optical rod manufacturing base in the world. Other domestic companies, such as Changfei, Hengtong, Fortis, Zhongtian, etc., are also implementing new light-rod projects through independent innovation and R&D through cooperation with foreign advanced technologies. We believe that after 3 to 5 years of development, domestic companies can achieve a production capacity of around 2,500 tons of light rods, which can basically meet the needs of domestic optical fibers.
2.3G and FTTH construction and implementation of "triple play" will be the continuous driving force for the development of optical fiber and cable industry
The commercialization of 3G in China has laid the foundation for the industry in 2009. As of the end of 2009 , 3G investment by three domestic operators totaled 160.9 billion yuan. By the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s mobile subscribers will reach 800 million. If 40 % of them become 3G subscribers, it will reach 320 million, and the scale of users will surely rank first in the world. In the next few years, the steady growth of the 3G industry will inevitably impose higher requirements on the coverage and stability of optical fiber networks, which will in turn lead to a steady growth in the demand for optical fiber cables.
Fiber-to-the-home ( FTTH ) needs to establish a branch-to-end fiber network, which will provide unlimited imagination for the development of fiber optic cable industry. It can be said that FTTH provides an opportunity for further development of domestic fiber optic cable industry. Our large-scale implementation required all the convenience of more than 100 million km fiber, optical fiber and cable whole industry chain will benefit, users will also enjoy year after FTTH fiber to the home. In addition, the worldwide development of FTTH also makes the global optical fiber demand growth trend, which will greatly promote the export of domestic products.
State Council executive meeting January 13, 2010 meeting decided to speed up telecommunications networks, radio networks and Internet triple play, and made it clear milestones and priorities. The move marks that the triple play will formally enter into a substantive stage of advancement, and the triple play will stimulate the input of optical and television networks to radio and television operators and bring new opportunities for the development of the optical fiber and cable industry.
3. Convergence and innovation are the main theme of the development of China's fiber optic cable industry in the future
In 2009 , the issuance of 3G licenses and the merger of Unicom and China Netcom made a dramatic change in China's telecom operation structure. The three major operators have started integrated operations of mobile, fixed and broadband. In 2010 , the State Council put forward the "triple play", which enabled the radio and television services and telecommunication services to begin to interweave. This large convergence trend has increased the demand for bandwidth. This convergence of service scope and the history of the operators have been strong. Imbalance leads to the continuous application of innovative technologies.
In the face of a multi-demand market, major optical fiber and cable companies have begun to explore differentiatedness from the era of convergence. The centralized procurement of major operators since 2004 has greatly promoted the standardization of optical fiber products in China. The common GYTA , GYTS and other specifications of the optical cable are very homogeneous, and the structure and performance are similar. In 2008 , major companies increased investment in R&D, and independent innovation technologies and products continued to emerge. The development of G.657 fibers was synchronized with international standards. There may be 3 to 4 skeletal belt cables, and the submarine cable is also a coastal island. More attention has been paid to development. Special requirements for special occasions such as sensing optical cables, oil well cables and mining optical cables have broken the foreign monopoly. The indoor soft optical cable industry is booming, and plastic optical fibers have started to go into short-distance communication applications. The appearance of this series of new technologies shows that major domestic optical fiber and cable companies pay more attention to the innovation of independent intellectual property rights, and it is an inevitable stage for China to move from a manufacturing country to a manufacturing powerhouse, and will become a key point for the development of China's optical fiber and cable enterprises in the future.
4. Increase R&D investment and expand new areas of fiber optic applications
At present, fiber optic cable is basically applied in the traditional communication field. Looking back at the history, even in the traditional communication field, the development of fiber optic cable is accompanied by the expansion of the application field. It has grown from the backbone network application in the 1990s to the current century. The application of access network at the beginning, and the FTTH construction and 3G construction in recent years, the continuous application of new technologies, new products, and new materials in this process has greatly promoted the advancement of industry technology and sound development of the industry, but In this process, especially in recent years, with the intensification of market competition, product prices continue to decline, and manufacturers are under tremendous pressure to survive. The manufacturers are increasingly focusing their efforts on market development and cost control, with little investment in R&D. With the centralized procurement of operators, even if manufacturers have research and development intentions, they follow the collective baton, which to a certain extent has affected the wider R&D enthusiasm of manufacturers.
The application of optical fiber is far from the narrow understanding of most fiber optic cable companies. There is a big gap between this level of research and the international advanced level. However, the few enterprises represented by long-flying and bonfire in domestic enterprises The more emphasis is placed on the R&D investment, in order to grasp the core technologies in new application areas and enhance the company's differentiated competitiveness. We believe that this direction will be the mainstream of corporate development and the development trend of the industry.
5. Going abroad to open up the international market is the development direction
The total global demand in 2009 is about 1.6 trillion core kilometers. China has already accounted for over 40% of the total demand for optical fiber and cable in the world. China's production capacity has exceeded domestic demand, and the number of exported optical cables is less than 6 million core kilometers, on the international stage. The scope and number of domestic companies involved do not match the production capacity of ultra-trillion-core chips. Chinese enterprises must seize the opportunity to go abroad and compete with multinational corporations such as Corning , Perisman and Draka in the world and join the ranks of large international companies. Fiber optic cable Fiber optic cable