The TV and mobile phone industries are like a "siege" in which companies on both sides covet each other's territories.
In early August, it was reported that mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO, and vivo would enter the TV field "cross-border". Huawei also reset the project of the TV team to conduct research on the hardware and UI layer of the TV, and conduct research with upstream panel vendors. Contact, the future will focus on the integration of 5G and 8K displays, positioning it in high-end artificial intelligence TV products.
Within half a year, the second time came out of HOV into the TV field. From 2013 to the present, the news that mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei are making TVs is endless. Compared with OPPO and vivo's responses to Blue Whale TMT reporters, Huawei stated that it "has never heard of it internally" and neither admits nor denies it, which is more ambiguous.
In fact, Huawei has actually entered the TV field. In October 2014, Huawei’s sub-brand Honor and Skyworth Cool developed and deployed the first Coocaa Honor A55 smart TV without remote control, using HiSilicon’s 4-core TV chip, 2G VPU+8-core GPU, 4K screen, and the phone can be converted to HDMI via MHL. Interactive with the TV, the price is 6,999 yuan.
In 2016, Huawei’s terminal Weibo responded to netizens’ comments about Huawei TV, “As long as you don’t give up, you will finally be able to wait for you to see Huawei TV one day in the future.†On June 22 this year, at the Huawei DigiX2018 Partner Conference, the official Propose a "full-scene ecological strategy" and build a "chip-end-cloud" ecological platform.
A series of adjustments is a reorganization and upgrade of the strategic direction of smart home. After Huawei entered the "sunset industry" notebook computer in 2016, it is not entirely impossible for Huawei to enter another "sunset industry" home TV.
Probably behind the "changing pit" is a strategic shiftShifting from the mobile phone industry to the television industry is like jumping from one pit into another, "just out of the wolf's den, and then into the tiger's den". The two industries that do not have much innovation, only "fine-tuning" and minor improvements based on the original foundation are facing a similar situation.
After the emergence of smart phones, it has brought a lot of impact to different industries. The user's time is limited, and the extension of the time occupied by one thing means that the time contributed to other things is reduced. In Q3 of 2014, for the first time, Americans spent more time on mobile devices than TV. According to eMarketer data, the time spent on smartphones per capita in my country will exceed that of TVs for the first time this year, and the changes brought by the mobile Internet to people's lives are still deepening.
Netizens ridiculed that smartphones defeated radios, cameras, computers, traditional media, game consoles, and televisions. . . . . . A series of defeats, the smartphone "seeking defeat alone". However, since Apple released the first-generation iPhone in 2007, it released a retina display with a resolution of 960×640 in 2010. No matter in terms of appearance, system optimization or display technology, the mobile phone has been in fact for many years without major changes and breakthroughs.
According to the "Analysis Report on the Operation of the Domestic Mobile Phone Market in June 2018" issued by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 196 million units in the first half of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. Shipments of 4G mobile phones in the first half of the year were 186 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%. The shipment of 3G mobile phones was 34,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 93.2%. The shipment of 2G mobile phones was 10.48 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. 4G mobile phones have become the mainstream of the market, and the decline of 2G and 3G mobile phones is obvious.
In the first half of 2018, Huawei P20, OPPO R15, R17, vivo X21, X23, and Mi 8, all made a fuss about the number of cameras, shaped screens, non-shaped screens, and screen sizes. OPPO FindX and vivo NEX full-screen mobile phones with lifting cameras are still a tentative action on the market. The high degree of homogeneity of products makes users gradually tired of aesthetics and weakens the desire to buy. The market share is concentrated, and the mobile phone industry seems to be unable to stir up a ripple and a wave again, and the smartphone is defeated by itself.
At the CES conference from 2014 to 2016, the pace of popularization of the smart home concept conformed to the development trend of 5G, AI and the Internet of Things, and this year there was no sign of slowing down. Manufacturers such as Samsung and LG even downgraded the importance of mobile phone products, focusing on smart home products. For example, smart refrigerators, TVs, washing machines, etc. connected through the Bixby function, and an artificial intelligence platform SmartThinQ that can be remotely controlled.
The life scene behind the living room culture connects the field of personal consumption and various vertical production industries, and the operation of vertical industries is the guarantee and support of the Internet of Things related technologies. As an important link in the industrial chain of the Internet of Things, smart homes are self-evident. Driven by this change in wind direction, the strategies of mobile phone manufacturers have begun to waver. Smart TVs and smart speakers may become the entrance to the home control center in addition to mobile phones.
Huawei's strategy in recent years has also been comprehensively carrying out related diversified development, and continuously expanding the product line of various types of smart homes. Home appliance analyst Liang Zhenpeng told reporters that if it is based on the strategic intent of the smart home industry, Huawei can make some attempts to use TV as a supporting device for its product line. But Huawei wants to make a big difference in the TV industry, it is very difficult, and the odds of winning in the future are very small.
Different from the fast-growing market environment of the communications industry, the color TV industry has been greatly impacted by the mobile Internet, making TVs have become more and more home living room decorations, mostly middle-aged and elderly users. The color TV market is extremely saturated and extremely surplus. The domestic market with a capacity of 40-50 million units continues to shrink.
At the end of 2016, the price of TV panels rose by nearly half. The TV industry entered the winter in 2017. Aowei Cloud Network report shows that in 2017, the domestic retail sales of color TV sets were 4,752, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, the largest drop since 2003. The market share of Internet brands was 13%, down 6% year-on-year, and new models fell 11% year-on-year. According to data from relevant research institutions, domestic sales decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, and foreign sales increased by 1.4% year-on-year. Hisense, TCL, and Skyworth rely on overseas markets to achieve profit growth.
In the first half of 2018, panel production capacity gradually recovered. GfK data shows that the average TV price in the first half of the year fell by 4.7% year-on-year, starting a price war. According to data from Zhongyikang, domestic TV retail sales reached 71.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. China's e-commerce data shows that sales in the first half of the year have fallen slightly year-on-year, and it is predicted that the gap between TV exports and domestic sales will further increase.
The chain reaction brought about by the cold winter is the follow-up organizational adjustments and transformation actions of TV manufacturers. On August 28, it was reported that a domestic appliance manufacturer had laid off 15% of its employees and slowed down its diversified expansion. The situation in the next year and the next is not optimistic.
Liang Zhenpeng said that LCD panels account for more than 70% of the cost of TVs, and the price of a chip is only tens of yuan. Without an upstream LCD factory, Huawei has no advantage in making TVs. This year, domestic Internet TV brands died down, leaving only five or six companies from a dozen last year. Adopt a low-price Internet model to sell, position the low-end, and follow the price war route. The more you sell, the more you lose. When Huawei does not have a factory, adopting a high-price model is tantamount to "work" for upstream LCD panel manufacturers.
Data show that the average profit rate of domestic color TV companies in 2017 was 1.3%. Taking TCL as an example, the net profit of selling a TV from 2015 to 2017 was 1.44 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 1.12, respectively. yuan. In contrast, mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO, and vivo make more than 100 yuan in profits from selling a mobile phone. Counterpoint data shows that the profit of an iPhone reaches $151. The industry has a significant watershed.
It will take time for the 8K+5G industry chain to matureDomestic TV manufacturers have left single digits from more than 200 at their peak, and the digital gap intuitively reflects the fierce competition. Since the television was born, there has been no subversive change in appearance and form. The technical content of TV chips is not as good as that of mobile phones. Chip manufacturers are concentrated in companies such as Mstar Morningstar, Realtek, Novatek, and Amlogic.
Related media reported that the 4K TV chips of Huawei HiSilicon hi3751V600 and hi3751V510 are gaining momentum. "It's not just Huawei, domestic TV manufacturers are developing their own chips. The range of TV chips is very large, including image decoding, audio processing chips, memory, flash memory, etc.. Huawei chips are just one of the many TV chips. In the TV industry, TV The core component of the machine is still the LCD panel." Liang Zhenpeng said.
At present, the market capacity of laser projection TVs tends to be niche. Most of the manufacturers' publicity points still focus on clarity, screen size, screen material, and content resources. OLED, UHD (4/8K), AI voice interaction has become the future development trend of TV. According to public data on the Internet, the penetration rate of 4K TVs in my country is expected to reach 58% by the end of this year, and 71% in three years.
It can be said that the popularization and landing of domestic 4K TVs is still in "difficult" progress. The development of related industrial chains cannot keep up with the speed of hardware implementation, which is a restrictive factor for the rise of the 4K concept but its slow development. In January of this year, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television just issued the "Notice of the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television on Regulating and Promoting the Development of 4K Ultra HD Televisions" to regulate 4K Ultra HD TVs. As an experimental field, Guangdong Province took the lead in issuing documents such as the "4K TV Network and Industry Development Implementation Plan (2017-2020)" and "Implementation Plan on Launching New Digital Home Actions to Promote the Development of 4K TV Network Applications and Industry" in May last year. Layout and promote the implementation of 4K.
4K TV content involves the upgrading of multiple upstream and downstream links and supporting equipment such as recording, shooting, production, burning, encoding and transmission. In the final analysis, what is needed is the ecological coordination and linkage of the entire industrial chain to promote development. An investigator from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once said that the key to 4K TV lies in the lack of content and transmission problems.
The 4K resolution is 3840×2160, and the theoretical transmission network speed is between 12-40Mbps. In 2011, TV manufacturers in Japan and South Korea, such as Toshiba, launched 4K-definition TVs, and domestic manufacturers followed suit in 2012. Until last year, the proportion of American households owning 4K ultra-definition TV was less than 20%. The CTA research report of the American Consumer Technology Association shows that the 4K TV penetration rate in American households is expected to reach 27% this year.
Streaming video companies such as Netflix and Amazon are important factors driving 4K awareness in the United States. In 2013, Netflix announced the launch of 4K streaming video. The successful operation of 4K video content such as "House of Cards" and "Breaking Bad" is counterproductive to TV Renewal of manufacturer's products. In 2016, Sony not only launched Handycam, a 4K camera device, but also announced the provision of a special 4K streaming media service Ultra for US users.
In fact, for users who face massive amounts of information every day, the number of these film sources is still far from enough. The content of 4K video is not standardized, and different TV manufacturers use different operating systems, so the decoding compatibility problems brought by it cannot be ignored. When 4K was struggling to advance, in August 2017, Sharp launched the first 8K TV model LCD-70SX970A in Shanghai, IFA in Berlin, Germany, Japan, and Taipei. The resolution of 8K (7680×4320) is 4 times that of 4K and 16 times that of 1080P. This means that if the screen size is less than 65 inches, the viewing effect is not ideal.
When the 4K TV was first launched, the price was high at ten thousand yuan. The price of 8K TV ranges from 50,000 to 100,000 yuan. The high price has to a certain extent caused the "proliferation" of pseudo 4K TVs on the market. On the other hand, Sharp has revealed that the number of 4K sources of Youku, iQiyi, and Tencent does not match the popularity of 4K TVs because the purchase of 4K shooting equipment is too expensive and the return on investment ratio is not cost-effective.
The domestic network TV qualifications are concentrated in CCTV International CNTV, China National Radio, China International Radio and Television, Hunan Television, Southern Radio, Film and Television Media Group, Hangzhou Wasu, and Shanghai Media BesTV. At the same time, more than 80% of Internet video content is monopolized by BAT behind iQiyi, Tencent Video, and Youku Video.
"There are almost no 8K resolution film sources on the market. Companies that do not have the qualifications and Internet content have very little room for content. The 8K TV market, like 4K TVs, faces the entire process from shooting, recording, transmission to broadcasting. Hardware equipment upgrades. In addition, 8K transmission requires a higher broadband transmission speed, and domestic users’ home broadband cannot meet the objective conditions for smooth viewing. Therefore, it will take at least five years for the 8K TV content industry chain to mature. The high cost and weak experience of 8K TVs mean that consumers will now buy 8K TVs in a few years without any meaning." Liang Zhenpeng told reporters.
A large part of Huawei's 8K TV launch is to comply with the development of 5G. The ultimate goal of 5G is to realize the interconnection of "everything". On August 28, Huawei’s Ark Lab stated that it would promote the incubation of smart life scenarios and explore the smart home market.
The prospects for the development of the Internet of Things are still uncertainDifferent from the mobile Internet era, the Internet of Things is a brand new track. "In the communications industry, whether it is 2G, 3G or 4G, after the standard is formulated, the upstream and downstream industries will develop in accordance with a standard. In the field of Internet of Things, the biggest pain point is the protocol and connection, which are too fragmented and standardized. This leads to the entire industry. Development is very difficult and extremely slow. No company can easily deploy solutions on a large scale." Ku Wei, head of Alibaba IoT, told reporters.
In recent years, the low-power wide-area Internet of Things LPWAN has presented a chaotic situation with no leader, and service providers from different camps have proposed different standards. Mainly divided into 3GPP, operators, equipment manufacturers under the leadership of cellular Internet of Things standards eMTC (LTE-M) and NB-IoT, as well as unlicensed frequency bands, LoRa, Sigfox, Weightless, RPMA, HaLow, etc. supported by non-telecom operators .
According to GSMA data, NB-IoT networks are mainly deployed in Europe, South Africa, China, and South Korea; LTE-M+NB-IoT networks are mainly deployed in North America, Australia, Japan, UAE, Belgium, Turkey and other regions; Russia, South America, India, West Asia, and Eastern Europe Operators deploy LoRa networks.
Public data shows that there are 13 eMTC networks and 47 NB-IoT networks in the global commercial networks. There are 15 countries and regions with more than two networks. Vodafone, T-Mobile, and Telia are the basic operators that deploy more networks. Different from that, different foreign operators adopt different network deployments. For example, in addition to T-Mobile's development of NB-IoT, US operators use LTE-M for the rest of Verizon, AT&T, and Sprint. The three domestic operators, China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, all use NB-IoT networks.
In November 2017, China Mobile announced the 139 cooperation plan. From 2017 to 2018, it invested 40 billion to build more than 400,000 NB-IoT base stations, and subsidized 2 billion modules. As of the first half of this year, China Mobile has announced the commercialization of NB-IoT in 11 provinces (cities, districts) in China, and the first phase of the network covers 346 cities; China Telecom is commercialized in 31 provinces and municipalities, and China Unicom is conducting commercial trials in 11 provinces NB-IoT.
In 2015, Huawei, Qualcomm, and Neul jointly proposed NB-CIoT, and Ericsson and Nokia jointly proposed NB-LTE. In September 2015, the RAN#69 meeting unified the two into NB-IoT. In contrast, unlicensed band technologies such as LoRa and Sigfox appeared two years earlier than NB-IoT, and the commercialization process also preceded NB-IoT.
Under the framework of 3GPP, the competition between eMTC and NB-IoT was fierce at one time. In fact, the two technologies are more complementary. Specifically, NB-IoT frequency band only supports FDD, eMTC supports FDD and TDD; NB-IoT is suitable for low-speed, relatively static scenarios, eMTC is suitable for medium and high-speed; eMTC supports voice, and NB-IoT chip and module cost are lower . Following the 76th meeting of 3GPP in June 2017, a consensus was reached on eMTC and NB-IoT technologies and system bandwidth technologies. eMTC and NB-IoT have officially changed from a rivalry relationship to a cooperative and complementary relationship.
When telecom companies are arguing over eMTC and NB-IoT, when they stand in line. Internet companies led by Alibaba, Tencent, and Google are also deploying IoT networks, which are just non-band-licensed LoRa. Not long ago, China Tower issued an announcement stating that China Tower will provide Alibaba's Internet of Things construction with site resource support services across the country. This shows that Alibaba has solved the site problem at this stage. As for the LoRa networks adopted by Alibaba and Tencent, the direct competitors are the NB-IoT networks supported by equipment vendors such as Huawei.
On August 24th, Alibaba and China Mobile Internet of Things conducted module cooperation. An operator insider told reporters that not only Huawei, Alibaba, and Tencent will be the operators' partners in the field of Internet of Things. NB-IoT and LoRa have their own advantages and problems. The cost of building a network with LoRa is lower than that of NB-IoT, which is suitable for rapid promotion. LoRa does not use cellular, and the networking is different from the operator's network. You can use the operator or your own fixed network and basic network for networking. At the same time, NB-IoT is also optimized for high-speed mobile scenarios in the 3GPP14 version.
An industry insider told reporters that in layman's terms, NB-IoT, eMTC and LoRa are like three children, NB-IoT and eMTC are the boss and second child, and LoRa is the third child. NB-IoT and eMTC are more like twin brothers, with complementary technologies but big differences. LoRa belongs to the narrow band, and is more inclined to the IT category.
The domestic first entrant Huawei (NB-IoT) and the late entrant Alibaba (LoRa) are both cultivating the vertical field behind the Internet of Things. With Internet companies' strong rollout speed, execution, and delivery capabilities, the future will be highly fragmented. The Internet of Things situation may be even more confusing.
As TV is a key link in the interactive portal of smart homes, whether Huawei does or does not have its considerations under the trend of IoT smart homes. However, the sunset industry attributes of TV itself and the extreme immaturity of the 8K industry chain, it remains to be seen whether Huawei's TV production is an improvement in corporate strategy or a decline in strategy.
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